The View from South of the Potomac River: It’s all about Inventory… or Actually the Lack Thereof

It’s all about Inventory… or Actually the Lack Thereof

 

Here in the close-in Northern Virginia market, (which is composed of Fairfax & Arlington Counties and Alexandria, Fairfax & Falls Church Cities), the lack of quality inventory is THE story now.  This is particularly true in the $500K-$300K and <$300K price ranges, where available inventory is down (19%) & (37%) respectively, but new contracts for January came in at 1% & (12%) respectively.  The drop in contract activity is believed to be related to the lack of desirable listings at this point, as opposed to a reduction in the desire to buy.  Open house attendance for the Arlington office of McEnearney Associates has been very since the start of the new year.

 

           Alexandria real estate market & Arlington real estate market

                                              

 

Cries of a buyers market have long faded away in all price points except the very high end.  In fact, below the $1M price point, the market is decidedly a sellers market with multiple contracts & escalation clauses becoming fairly standard again.  The drop in available units in the two lower price points mentioned above, coupled with relatively stronger sales in the month, has led to a depleted inventory to below a 2 month supply.  The bar graph below shows Months’ Supply for 1/2011 vs. 1/2012 by price range.

 

            Months Supply for the Alexandria real estate market

Overall, the Northern Virginia real estate market will be driven by employment, just like other locales across the country.  The presence of the Federal Government, Contractors to the Government, and Military installations have provided greater stability of employment and liquidity in the market with a steady stream of people locating to the region & transferring out.  The forecast is for this to continue into the foreseeable future, so the future continues to look bright for real estate here.

                         

*Statistics are courtesy of McEnearney Associates, Inc. and based on MRIS data, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

                     

 

 

If you would like additional information about your specific neighborhood, as all real estate is local, please contact me and I would be happy to personalize this information to your needs.

                                  

 

AJ Heidmann ~ CRS,  ABR

Cell 703-474-1260 ~ Office 703-717-6324 ~ Fax 703-839-8283

AJ@AJHeidmann.com

www.AJHeidmann.com

McEnearney Associates, Inc.

4720 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA  22207

Licensed in Virginia

Comment balloon 19 commentsAJ Heidmann ~ CRS • February 23 2012 12:04PM

Comments

Hi AJ,  nice problem to have in our industry....thanks for the charts and graphs and for sharing with us.

Posted by Ronald DiLalla, No. Orange Cty Real Estate (Century 21 Discovery DRE 01813824) over 8 years ago

So much of our local housing inventory has been converted to "rental" property by owners leaving the area over the last few years that homeowners being transferred NOW are finding buyers for properly priced homes.

Posted by Wallace S. Gibson, CPM, LandlordWhisperer (Gibson Management Group, Ltd.) over 8 years ago

Ronald - You're right, we could have a bunch of other things to worry about!  However, for buyers in the area, finding something in good condition & priced right can be a big challenge.  Thanks for stopping by.

Wallace - We had some of that, but I don't think nearly as much a conversion to Rentals as your area.  Thanks.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) over 8 years ago

AJ - Hearing great news like this makes my day!  Now if only the media would hear it and pass it along and get off the negativity theme.  Well presents market report my friend.

Posted by John McCormack, CRS, Honesty, Integrity, Results, Experienced. HIRE Me! (Albuquerque Homes Realty) over 8 years ago

John - John, it is good news, but you wouldn't believe how many people come through an open house proclaiming that it is still a buyers market?  I have to have the number/facts at my fingertips otherwise they think that I trying to do a con job on them.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) over 8 years ago

AJ, 

Looks like a fabulous market in VA!  We are seeing marked strides of improvement here in Atlanta.  Very exciting!

All the best, Michelle

Posted by Michelle Francis, Realtor, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease (Tim Francis Realty LLC) over 8 years ago

Michelle - I'm glad to hear that your market is moving in the right direction and hope that it keeps going.  Thanks for stopping by.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) over 8 years ago

AJ - Great local real estate market report.  You've given buyers and sellers a lot of good information to use.  Nicely done!

Posted by Laura Allen, Lake Tahoe - Truckee Real Estate for Sale TahoeLauraRealEstate.com, Tahoe Real Estate Agent Helping Buyers and Sellers (Coldwell Banker, Tahoe City, CA (530) 414-1260) over 8 years ago

Laura - Thanks for stopping by... I hope this will get some more sellers onto the market this Spring.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) over 8 years ago

AJ, this is certainly good news for Sellers in your area. I hearing this more and more, across the country.

Posted by Connie Harvey, Realtor - Nashville TN Real Estate (Pilkerton Realtors) about 8 years ago

Connie - Things are definitely moving from balanced to a sellers market, so barring an explosion of new inventory (which I don't see), pricing should be stable to slightly up for the year.  Thanks for the comment.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) about 8 years ago

What did we learn in college? Inventory goes down, prices go up........it is all GOOD for the economy! Great post!

Posted by Barbara-Jo Roberts Berberi, MA, PSA, TRC - Greater Clearwater Florida Residential Real Estate Professional, Palm Harbor, Dunedin, Clearwater, Safety Harbor (Charles Rutenberg Realty) about 8 years ago

Terrific post AJ, good to see a strong market in your area.  Best wishes for success in 2012.

Posted by Al Raymondi, Ormond By The Sea Florida - Home and Condo Sales (Ocean View Realty Group in Ormond By The Sea Florida) about 8 years ago

Barara-Jo - The basics don't change and hopefully more sellers will take advantage of the opportunity.

 

AL - Thanks for stopping by and best wishes for you 2012.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) about 8 years ago

Thank you for sharing the market stats for your area. Buyers and sellers should call you for help in buying or selling  a house.

Posted by Gita Bantwal, REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel (RE/MAX Centre Realtors) about 8 years ago

Gita - Thanks for stopping by.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) about 8 years ago

AJ -- what we need are some equity homeowners who would like to make a move -- they may be listening to the "national news" and not realize that there is a great opportunity to maximize their selling price if they are prepared to really sell -- just another case of real estate being local and neighborhood-centric.   

Posted by Michael Jacobs, Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393 about 8 years ago

Our Portland market is seeing less inventory now, too ... and properties that are presented well and priced right are selling quickly.  It's good news and I'm glad to hear it's happening in other areas, too!

Posted by Maureen Bray Portland OR Home Stager ~ Room Solutions Staging, "Staging Consultations that Sell Portland Homes" (Room Solutions Staging, Portland OR) about 8 years ago

Michael - I agree with your sentiment, many are missing the opportunity to sell because of the national situation

Maureen - Great to hear that other areas are moving along too, thanks for stopping by.

Posted by AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert (McEnearney Associates, Inc.) about 8 years ago

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